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(NFL) San Diego/Denver Over 57 (Thursday, December 12, 2013 8:25 PM EST)
Betting double-digit favorites in the NFL home or away is a certain long term recipe for disaster and the side here is dicey at best. Sure the Broncos are 6-1 as a home favorite this year (the only non-cover was a 35-19 win over Jacksonville laying 26) but on the other side of the coin, the Chargers have just one loss this year by ten points and that was an improbable lay down in Oakland. The Bolts are just a game out of the last AFC wildcard and played Denver tough (28-20) the first time around so the Super Chargers will come to play here. That said, the Denver offense has been a monster averaging a tick under 40 points a game and dropped 51 on an arguably better Tennessee defense last week after a slow start. The San Diego defense is hot or miss week to week but in the end you are what your stats say you are and in the Chargers case, they give 22.4 ppg and that includes holding several teams to 17 or less. In the last three meetings between these two, the Broncos have scored 28, 35 and 30. With weather not an issue, they figure to get at least 40 in their final home game before the playoffs in their final homie of 2013. A couple of quick strikes early will force the Chargers to try and trade points, a certain shootout. The Broncos are 11-2 high this year and 32-14 over the last three years. The Chargers are 7-1 high in their L8 as a dog at this level and will play to the final whistle with their playoff lives on the line. Play the Over.
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