Bet the San Antonio Spurs Under 45.5 2011-2012 Season Wins
Betting the NBA this year is going to be a crapshoot at best. Particularly early in the year while teams are still working into game shape, developing rotations, and developing some sort of chemistry with in some cases large turnovers of personnel.
Cramming 66 games into a 123 days is going to be tough on all teams but particularly teams that are long in the tooth. There are going to be 43 instances of teams playing back-to-back-to-back games and three games in four nights, four games in five nights, and five games in seven nights will be common plays. Quality depth will undoubtedly be a key. So will injuries which could be significant with so little time to prepare. Arguably, age might be the most important factor and it coaching will be paramount as they try to manage starters minutes.
Perhaps no team’s season win total will be effected by age and coaching as the San Antonio Spurs.
While nobody is a better game manager than Pop, the Spurs big three of Duncan, Parker, and Ginobli is another year older and San Antonio has done little to upgrade it’s roster.
The Spurs are set at the post. Tim Duncan is 35 and coming off career lows of 13.4 ppg and just 8.9 rpg. His games and minutes have been managed in recent years, expect to more DeJuan Blair (8.7, 7.0) to play more than 21 minutes a game and will likely see a lot of time at power forward too. Matt Bonner is back but primarily as a wildcard with his unlimited three-point range.
Tony Parker is 29 and will be calling the shots from the point. Parker had a solid 17.5 ppg year last while fropping 6.6 dimes per night. The ex-Mr Longoria managed to play 78 games avoiding the injuries that have plagued him in recent seasons. TJ Ford is a solid backup and Gary Neal is back to shoot the rock and can also play the two. George Hill has moved on to the Pacers and the Spurs will miss his valuable minutes and clutch shooting at the 2-3.
Manu Ginobli is 34 and off one the best seasons of his career. He averaged 17.5 ppg and has been greatly helped by cutting down his schedule with the Argentine national team. Ginobli is a pesky defender, clutch shooter, and has an uncanny habit of making the big play. He’ll probably be on a minutes leash until the playoffs.
The Spurs may have gotten the steal of the draft with Kahwi Leonard of San Diego State. At 6’7″ and 225, he extremely skilled and agile for his size. He’s a flat out stopper defender and pit bull on the glass. He’s improved his outside shot over the summer and hit the game winner vs the Rockets in the Spurs final exhibition game. Leonard will get a lot of minutes and will likely get worked into the rotation quickly.
The theme here is that the Spurs are the usual suspects we’ve come to know and love and still with most of the same faces. The Spur front office was none to concerned about getting bumped in the first-round last year by the Grizzlies and basically stood pat. That said, this team is another year older.
The Spurs are traditionally fast starters but that might not be the case this year. San Antonio will still have it’s familiarity and continuity but much like the Colts in football, Pop may just be looking to finish in the top four and getting a first-round home court. Minutes will be limited and games likely sacrificed at the beginning and end of the year to put the Spurs in a position to win the West. In short, asking a veteran team like this to play near .700 ball in those 66 games in 123 days is a bit much and we won’t be getting any help from their experienced result oriented coach.
Sportsbetting3’s season win recommendation on the San Antonio Surs is to play Under the Total.