Sportsbetting3’s 2011 Travers Stakes Preview

2011 Travers Preview

With the 3-year-old and Horse of the Year pictures still up in the air, the Travers Stake on Saturday should go a long way in clarifying both pictures. A field of two will go to post including Preakness winner Shackleford and Belmont winner Ruler on Ice. Hard hitting Coil and late bloomer Stay Thirsty round out the contenders.

Lets take a look at the field starting with the horses that on paper figure to have little chance of hitting the board. From the rail out we have ….

#1 Bowman’s Causeway (12-1): Was not a factor in the spring against graded company finishing off the board in the Fountain Youth and Florida Derby. Sent to Canada where he still coundn;t win finishing 2-4-2 in his last three with fastest Beyer being 93. No shot.

#2 Rattlesnake Ridge (8-1): This grey son of Tapit has not raced since July 9th and has never faced a field of this quality. Improving each start and off the best start of his career, a win in the Long Branch, this closer might be able to grab a piece with suicide numbers up front.

#3 Moonshine Mullin (20-1): Finished a nice 2nd over this track in the Jim Dandy on July 30th. By far the best race of his career, horses that generally bounce negatively after a race so much out of character. Carries 126 for the first time after never carrying more than 121. Overmatched.

#5 Mailbu Glow (20-1): With just five LT starts, this is Malibu Glow’s toughest test to date. Beat allowance company from the outside in his last. Slow fractions up front will kill any of the small chances he has of being competitive here.

#6 Raison d’Etat (10-1): A well-bred son of AP Indy, Raison d’Etat comes off his best start, a second place finish in the Curlin. Big, growthy, talented and trained by Bill Mott, this horse should be a factor in the fall and as an older horse.

#8 JW Blue (20-1): Breaks slowly, has no early speed, and has not beaten anything near this type of quality. 5th in the Rebel, 6th in the Arkansas Derby, 3rd in the Tesio, and 2nd in the Barbaro should be all you need to know that this one just doesn’t belong.

The contenders and your Sportsbetting3’s Travers Superfecta prediction

The Winner

#9 Stay Thirsty (5-2): The hot horse. After finishing a surprise second in the Belmont, Stay Thirsty came back to crush a talented field in the Jim Dandy with a blazing 106 Beyer. From the Pletcher barn and with Javier Castellano in the irons, this horse is in top hands. His sire Bernadini also won the Jim Dandy/Travers double in 2006.

Place

#10 Shackleford (9-2): How can you not love this horse. He dances every dance against the best and is always a force to be reckoned with. Has the speed to grab the top in a flash and when unchallenged gets braver and braver as the race goes on. With top effort, he could bottom out this field at a nice price.

Show

#4 Ruler on Ice (6-1) Never back of third in seven career starts, Ruler on Ice suprised in the Belmont with Blinkers on. No match for Coil or Shacklford in the Haskell at the shorter distance, the Ruler should enjoy the extra furlong here

Completing your Superfecta

#7 Coil (3-1): This colt has done absolutely nothing wrong and is the winner of four of his six LT starts for Baffert/Garcia. That said, his race numbers are not impressive and in his recent outings hasn’t shown the tactical speed to win here. One writer called Coil a good horse but not a fast horse. He could be right.