Panthers/Falcons Over the Total of 50.5
Both teams are giving up better than 26 ppg and both more than able offensively. Cam Newton and the Panthers can do it by land or air and today face a defense allowing almost 70% completions. Matty Ice dropped 31 points on Carolina in both meetings last year vs a better defense and this year the Panthers have the weapons to fight back. The Falcons are without Julio Jones but should enjoy a huge drop in class after getting snuffed by the Packers last week. Carolina 4-1 to the Over this year with the only Under played in a driving monsoon in Jacksonville. Under the perfect conditions of the Georgia Dome, neither team has an excuse for not lighting it up here. Play the Over.
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Colts +7 over the Bengals
Quick !!! Riddle me this. Who is the #1 defense in the NFL ??? Statistically, that would be the Cincinnati Bengals which is even hard to role off the tongue. Even with the Colts playing for Andrew Luck, not interested in the Bengals who are 6-21 as a favorite since 2007 under Lewis and 1-10 in their L11 as a home favorite. The Colt defense still has people and some pride. They likely won’t be on the field forever today as the Andy Dalton led Cinn offense producing just 320 yards (one play over 20 yards last week) per outing. The Bengals are the better team at this point but a FG better, not a touchdown. For whatever reason, Indy seems to compete more with Curtis Painter calling the shots. Grab the points.
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Cowboys/Pats Over the the Total of 55
Two of the NFL’s five WORST defenses clash here in a game where Romo and Brady figure to sit back and trade points. Not interested in either side here as the Cowboys have played ten straight games decided by four points or less and come off the bye where Rob Ryan has had extra time to prepare. This is a BIG number by NFL standards but both teams are more than capable of posting 30+ here. In fact, the Pats have scored 30 points 13 straight time and can tie the “Greatest Show on Turf” 99 Rams for the NFL record of 14 straight here. Tech are overwhemingly OVER including current 20-4 run by the Pats to the HIGH side. Play the Over.
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Saints/Bucs Over the Total of 49
Drew Brees has the Saints offense hitting on all cylinders (31.4 ppg on 452 ypg) and figure to force the Bucs to try and trade points as Tampa Bay will be without battering ram LaGarrette Blount. Josh Freeman figures to have success against the Whodat secondary and should be doubly focused after debacle in San Francisco last week. New Orleans on a current 7-0 Over run in roadies where the total is 45-49 and the Bucs are 4-1 to the Over so far this year and will be playing catch up most of the day. Forget the techs and current run of four straight series Unders, this one goes flying OVER the total.
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