San Diego -2 Jets
These teams have met three times in four years but this is the first time the Bolts travel to the Meadowlands. Would much prefer catching points with San Diego, a 63% proposition during the Norv Turner regime but will still back Philip Rivers over a struggling Mark Sanchez. San Diego 4-1 off the bye under Turner and Rivers will have as healthy a wide receiving corps as he’s had this year with Jackson, Floyd, and Gates less than 100%. The Jets power running game has abandoned them and lets remember that Gang Green had allowed 30+ points in three straight games before facing a hapless Miami team that shot itself in the foot time after time.
Cleveland -3 over Seattle
The Seahawks are 3-9 ATS on the road under Carroll and are off an improbable win over the Giants in New Jersey and their bye, a spot that finds them 6-16 ATS. Can’t see Seattle going B2b with suitcase even with the extra time to prepare even facing a ragged Cleveland bunch. Colt McCoy has not been much in his second year as a starter and he hasn’t gotten much help from oft-injured Madden Boy Peyton Hillis. In fact, the ex-Longhorn has had to throw the ball 39+ times in four of the Browns five games. I wouldn’t want to be in the electric chair with my reprieve on either of these two but much prefer the homestanding Browns to figure out a 7-point win in the Dawg Pound. Lay the points.
Broncos/Dolphins Over the Total of 42
The Tebow era starts today and the ex-Florida Gator couldn’t have picked a better spot as he’ll have plenty of support in the stands. In fact, the Dolphins will be honoring the 2008 National Championship Gators before the game leaving a Dolphin team that is just 5-18 ATS in L23 as host saying, “WTF”. Tebow will be facing the 30th ranked defense against the pass and not a whole lot of pass rush (Fish just 6 sacks) to boot. The Broncos will also have new wrinkle in th red zone with Tebow who would just assume pull it down and go turning Orton FGs into touchdowns. Miami is playing hard and moved the football against the Jets and were just plagued by mistakes. Moore will get things done against a porous Denver stop unit. Not interested in a side in a matchup of two teams with just one win between them but can definitely see points scored all day as this very manageable number goes flying OVER.
Steelers/Cardinals Over the Total of 42.5
This is the first meeting since their epic Super Bowl battle three years ago. Big Ben and the Steelers have been rolling despite a patchwork offensive line. Pitt fell asleep in the second half at Jacksonville last week but figure to be more effective here against Whisenhut and the Cards. Both defense are clearly beat up with defensive QB Polamalu likely out with a concussion and Arizona missing three starters including their best (Rhodes) cover guy in the secondary. Pittsburg is 7-3 on the High side in their L10 and Zona’s L4 homies all went over the total. Kevin Kolb is not Kurt Warner but he’ll generate some points here. Play the OVER.