Saints -8.5 over the Bucs
These teams met three weeks ago in Tampa Bay with the Bucs winning 26-20. It was almost like the perfect storm for the Bucs who were coming off a 48-3 drubbing at the hands of the 49ers. The Saints were 4-1 and rolling along before getting thumped. The roles are reversed here the Bucs off their bye after getting punked by the Bears in London. New Orleans off the horrific loss to the Rams and rocking 3-0 ATS mark at home and 7-2 ATS off a loss. Away dogs off a bye are 11-25-1 since 2000 and teams off a bye in any situation haven’t done well. Buc’s Josh Freeman has no run game behind him with LaGarette Bount (Check status) and Earnest Graham (IR, achillies) on the shelf and the ex-K State Wildcat has 10 picks vs 7 ouchdowns. Lay the points with New Orleans.
Miami at Kansas City Under 39.5
Definitely not interested in a side here with the Dolphins still winless but apparently giving an effort while the Chiefs are on short week off a big division Monday night win over San Diego. That said, both team are playing good defense and struggling for points. Miami avgg just 15.3 ppg on 319 ypg, the Chiefs avgg 18.4 ppg on just 308 ypg. Miami is 6-1 to the Under for the year and 15-5 Low in their L20 games with suitcase. The Chiefs have just one big play threat in Bowe and he’ll get plenty of attention from the Miami secondary. This just figures out to be a game of ball control, field position, and maybe cashing a turnover or two. The first one to 20 wins here. Play the Under.
San Francisco at Washington Under 37.5
The Washington Redskins are a mash unit with an offense that has produced just 66 points over the past five games and comes off a 23-0 whitewash at the hands of the defensively challenged Buffalo Bills. Whether it’s Beck or Sexy Rexy, the Skins will have their work cut out for them vs the under-the-radar ground and pound 6-1 49ers. Harbough has come in with a perfect game plan … run the ball, play defense, and don’t do anything that will allow Alex Smith to get you beat. All three of the 49er’s road games have come in the EST time zone so travel hasn’t been a problem in the least. San Fran also rocking the best redzone defense in pro football and not to proud to kick FGs themselves. Play the Under.
Cincinnati at Tennessee Under 41.5
Don’t look now but the Bengals are 5-2 (6-1 ATS) and have become somewhat of a factor in the NFC North and wildcard races. The Cincinnati defense in #2 in the NFL and has left Andy Dalton in good spots to succeed in his rookie season. This week, Cedric Benson returns from suspension which further takes the pressure off of Dalton. The Titans just might be a bit counterfeit after the fast start. They were manhandled by Pittsburg and Houston and were fortunate to get by Indy in a misleading 27-10 final. Chris Johnson has never gotten untracked and the Titans are still last in rushing the football. Defensively, the Titans have had one bad game against Houston, the Steelers points mostly coming off mistakes by the offense and trick plays. Points will hard to come by here, play the Under.