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Gepost in: Blogroll,Uncategorized — dmack @ 9:42 pm

Chiefs at Bears Under 37.5

This is a story of struggling backup quarterbacks and now Kyle orton is a definite subplot. The Chiefs have scored just one offensive touchdown in four games. That’s one TD in their L42 drives! KC has also turned the ball over seven times in their L20 drives thanks in large part to Tyler Palko interceptions. He’ll get a fast hook here with Orton having had about two weeks to learn the playbook. Caleb Hanie got his chance and promptly threw three picks in his debut. He’s serviceable at best and will get lots of heat from the still trying hard KC defense. Matt Forte can’t do it all by himself, especially stacking eight in the box and making Hanie beat you. The last six Chief games have gone under and there is no reason to think this one won’t do the same. Play the Under.

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Jets -3 over the Redskins

If you think that Fireman Ed was worried last week in Gang Green’s final minute/drive win over the Bills, he’ll be doubly worried for the Flyboys today at Fed Ex Field. The Jets have played themselves into a corner where they’ll pretty much have to win out and still get help to have any shot at the playoffs. The Jets are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road this year after going 15-7 SU and ATS with suitcase in Ryan’s first two years. the Jets are the better team and they are still in the mix. Four of their last five games are vs losing records. They’re 4-0 when they score 24+ points but the Skins have allowed more than 24 just twice. Washington snapped six-game skid by punking Seattle last week. They won’t be as fortunate as the desperate, back-against-the-wall, wounded animal Jets. NYJ 27-17.

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Carolina at Tampa Bay Over 47.5

Two of the better young gunslingers hook up here as Cam Newton visits Josh Freeman. Like many road teams in NFC South divisional series, the Panthers have had a lot of success at Raymond James going 6-2 in L8 but were swept last year. Both teams turn the ball over inordinately. In fact, the Bucs have lost five-in-a-row turning the ball over 11 times. Carolina is 4-1 Over in their five road games and 5-1 Over in L6 as a dog. The only team that has stopped Carolina this year was the Tennessee Titans. Bucs scored 31 in this game last year as Tampa bay rushed for 186. Expect a big helping of LaGarette Bount here. In short, both teams will get their points. Play the Over.

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Green Bay -7 over the NY Giants

The Thanksgiving game vs the Lions and this roadie at the Meadowlands were thought to be the Packers final stumbling blocks to a Green Bay perfect regular season. Well, the Packers easily passed their first test in Motown and figure to have an equally easy time in the swamp. The Packers have been amazing. They’ve now won 17 straight games and covered 14 of them. They’ve never trailed in the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers must be licking his chops after seeing Drew Brees disect the G-Man. Big Blue has lost three straight allowing 93 points and the visitor is just 1-5 in the last six games on the series. Green Bay has won their L3 games here by 34-11-23 points. The Pack crushed the Gints 45-17 last year in a winner take all. Green Bay 45-27.

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Gepost in: Blogroll,Uncategorized — dmack @ 10:27 pm

UConn at Cincinnati Under 49

The Bearcats can clinch a piece of the Big East title with a win and are still in the hunt for the BE BCS bid. They’ll have their work cut out for them as they haven’t fared well of late against the Huskies covering just one of the last five in the series. The Cincinnati offense has been limited since the injury to gunslinger Nick Collaros. Backup Lagaux completing just 47% of his passes and facing a stop unit that turned Rutgers over six times and held the Scarlet Knights to -9 yards rushing. Last year, the swarming Husky defense turned the Bearcats over five times. Cinn just 1-7 in last eight as a home fave and UConn has never won in the Queen City. With what figures to be a trench war, the Under is the play.

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Kansas State -10.5 over Iowa State

Believe it or not, KState is still in the hunt for a BCS bid so expect a razor sharp effort from the Wildcats who are off a rare late season bye. They’ll face a Cyclone team that has covered four straight as a dog but allows 196 ypg overland which is a huge problem against ground oriented KSU. The Kansas State defense has been deceptively good except against the best of the best Big 12 gunslingers. Iowa State’s frosh QB is anything but with his 5-5 TD/Int ratio. If you’ve been tailing KSU at the window this year you are probably getting ready to retire in Belize having cashed nine of your ten 2011 tickets. Snyder will have some new wrinkles ready to go with the extra prep and this one could be over early. Lets call this Kansas State 41-20.

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Texas at Baylor Under 64

The Bears haven’t beaten the Longhorns B2B since ’91-92 and their possibilities here likely hinge on the health of Heisman candidate Robert Griffin III. RG3 sat out the second half of the 66-42 win over Texas Tech last week after taking blow to the head. Griffin said he could have played but don’t they all. Texas will try and play keepaway by rushing the ball and playing defense. The Horns have allowed more than 20 points just three times this year and the rushing game figures to have success against a Baylor front seven allowing a tick under two bills (198.8 ypg) on the ground. Running the ball and running clock plus keeping the defense fresh is Texas’ only recipe for success. It also means that points will be at a premium and have us squarely on the Under.

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Idaho +20 Over Nevada

Nevada has dominated this series winning eight of nine (7-2 ATS) by an average of 33 ppg but not eager to back the Pack here off two crushing last minute losses to La Tech and Utah State. Reno was in control of the WAC but is now likely headed to Hawaii on Christmas Eve which could be another distraction. This year’s version of the pistol shooting at a much lower calibre that last year’s Colin Kaepernick edition. The Vandals are feisty and cognizant that the Wolfpack has hung 60 on them three straight years. Idaho HC Akey reportedly of the hotseat which should be additional motivation for the visitors. Top effort by the Vandals against a Nevada team with nothing real to play for keeps Idaho in the hunt. Take the points.

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