NFL Quarterback Regular Season Props

The 2022 National Football League is all about the quarterback position. In the second 17-game season in NFL history, it will be interesting to see where Las Vegas places the over/unders for the quarterbacks this season. So, how do we stand on Patrick Mahomes’ yards and touchdowns? Let us take a look at the total passing yards and touchdowns among some of the best in the league, where we are looking at quite a few overs.

STATE
Bet
BetRivers Sportsbook#1 BetRivers
REVIEW
$250 Bonus - 100% Match on First Deposit - Code: 250MATCH
Bet Now
BetMGM Sportsbook#2 BetMGM
REVIEW
New Customers - Risk-Free First Bet Up to $1000
Bet Now

Top Quarterback Passing Props

2022 NFL Total Passing Yards, Total Passing Touchdowns
+ Displays more odds
BetRivers BetRivers
Bet
Aaron Rodgers
2022 Total Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Patrick Mahomes
2022 Total Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Tom Brady
2022 Total Passing Yards
Tom Brady
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Justin Herbert
2022 Total Passing Yards
Justin Herbert
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Josh Allen
2022 Total Passing Yards
Josh Allen
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns

Scroll down for a complete list below

Aaron Rodgers

Before we get to the Mahomes – who is surprisingly not the favorite to win the NFL MVP – let us start with the 2020 and 2021 MVP awards. Rodgers won his fourth MVP in 2021, separating himself from the pack and putting him just one trophy behind the record-holder Peyton Manning. The Green Bay Packers quarterback lost his No. 1 receiver in Davante Adams, but this is Aaron Rodgers. He is still fifth in the MVP odds at +1100. Rodgers has been a marvel at avoiding turnovers, and the way to go is the over on 4,050.5 passing yards and 31.5 passing touchdowns. He had 4,115 yards and 37 TDs last season, so the overs should be good to go.

Patrick Mahomes

Just like Rodgers, Mahomes (+900 to win MVP; tied for second overall) is expected to have a drop in his statistics for 2022. His passing yards are set at 4,650.5 while his passing touchdowns are 35.5. Last year, Mahomes went for 4,839 passing yards and 37 touchdowns. How will substitute Tyreek Hill with JuJu Smith-Schuster as well as some receiver changes affect the Chiefs offense? The overs should be the way to go, but it will be dependent upon the weapons around him.

Tom Brady

Last year, Tom Brady received 10 first-place votes, but he fell short in both the MVP and the playoffs. He will be looking for vengeance after what seemed to be one of the shortest retirements of all time. Brady is tied with Mahomes at +900 for MVP odds. The seven-time Super Bowl champion led the NFL with 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns last season, and this year, his numbers are set at 4,550.5 passing yards and 34.5 passing touchdowns. This appears to be the best over bet of the entire bunch here.

Justin Herbert

The second-place finisher in passing yards in 2021 was Justin Herbert, and he for sure is on the rise. His passing yards for 2022 are set at 4,700.5 while his touchdowns are 36.5. Herbert, who is +1000 to win the MVP award (fourth overall), will look to limit his interceptions in 2022. Last year, he had 15, which tied him for third in the NFL. The passing yards should be an over, but the passing touchdowns will be difficult. Maybe it is best to stay away from the touchdowns prop for Herbert.

Josh Allen

Last but not least is the favorite to win the 2022 MVP (+700). Josh Allen led his Bills to an AFC Championship Game appearance after a tremendous victory over Mahomes and the Chiefs, but Allen and Buffalo fell short against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bills franchise quarterback hopes to win the franchise’s first Super Bowl, and he is expected to have a strong season. However, similar to the other quarterbacks, Vegas thinks there will be a dip. Allen went for 4,407 yards and 36 touchdowns in 2021. In 2022, his over/unders are set at 4,350.5 passing yards and 34.5 passing touchdowns. The overs should be looking good for him.

What is an NFL Player Prop Bet?

The player prop bet is a side bet placed on an event that isn’t dependent on any particular game’s outcome. In this case, the prop is for each quarterback’s regular season performance.

Example NFL Quarterback Player Prop
Aaron Rodgers – Total Passing Touchdowns

  • 31.5 o -118
  • 31.5 u -106

This passing touchdowns line includes ½ touchdowns. That means no tie bets are possible.

Options:
Risk $118 to win $100 that Aaron Rodgers makes more than 31.5 touchdown passes. A result of 32 or more wins.
Risk $106 to win $100 that Aaron Rodgers makes less than 31.5 touchdown passes. A result of 31 or fewer wins.

How to Handicap an NFL Quarterback Season Prop Bet

An NFL Quarterback’s regular season performance comes down to three factors. Carefully consider the following as you decide how to bet an NFL player prop. Evaluate both sides of the line. Don’t let your initial bias guide your decision.

Avoiding Injury

How likely is the quarterback to get injured or exacerbate an existing injury? High injury risk decreases the likelihood the quarterback will go over the sportsbook’s line. While the under might be more expensive and less rewarding in some cases, taking the safer bet is sometimes the better option.

Also consider the quarterback’s age, playing style, how often they run the ball, and the ability of their offensive line to protect them. Quarterbacks who are more likely to get sacked or tackled on the run have higher injury risk than one who plays more conservatively.

Teammate Performance

Quarterbacks can’t throw touchdowns unless their receivers can catch them. Review each quarterback’s receivers. Do they rely on one or two to score touchdowns? If so, how likely are these players to produce this coming season?

Also consider the team’s offensive line. Quarterbacks cannot reliably throw the ball without consistent passing protection. Is the offensive line in good shape for the upcoming season? Will new recruits improve or impede the line’s ability to protect the quarterback?

Finally, consider the injury risk for the linemen and likely receivers. If a valuable linemen misses a few games, how will that affect the quarterback’s passing game?

Team Offense, Offensive Coordinator

Some head coaches and offensive coordinators prefer running the ball more than others. Considering the team’s offensive style and the sportsbook’s line, does the over or under make more sense?

First, determine the team’s most likely offensive style for the upcoming season. Pay close attention to any coaching changes. Also review last season’s results. Teams that had lackluster performances will likely make changes. Next, decide whether the quarterback will go over or under the sportsbook’s line.

If the sportsbook’s total passing yards line is high, take the under if the team mostly runs the ball. However, if the passing yards line is low, take the over if you believe the team will be throwing the ball more often this season.

Total Passing Yards, Passing Touchdowns for All NFL Quarterbacks

2022 NFL Total Passing Yards, Total Passing Touchdowns
+ Displays more odds
BetRivers BetRivers
Bet
Aaron Rodgers
2022 Total Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Carson Wentz
2022 Total Passing Yards
Carson Wentz
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Dak Prescott
2022 Total Passing Yards
Dak Prescott
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Daniel Jones
2022 Total Passing Yards
Daniel Jones
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Derek Carr
2022 Total Passing Yards
Derek Carr
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Jalen Hurts
2022 Total Passing Yards
Jalen Hurts
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Jameis Winston
2022 Total Passing Yards
Jameis Winston
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Jared Goff
2022 Total Passing Yards
Jared Goff
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Joe Burrow
2022 Total Passing Yards
Joe Burrow
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Josh Allen
2022 Total Passing Yards
Josh Allen
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Justin Fields
2022 Total Passing Yards
Justin Fields
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Justin Herbert
2022 Total Passing Yards
Justin Herbert
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Kirk Cousins
2022 Total Passing Yards
Kirk Cousins
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Kyler Murray
2022 Total Passing Yards
Kyler Murray
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Lamar Jackson
2022 Total Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Mac Jones
2022 Total Passing Yards
Mac Jones
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Matt Ryan
2022 Total Passing Yards
Matt Ryan
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Matthew Stafford
2022 Total Passing Yards
Matthew Stafford
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Patrick Mahomes
2022 Total Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Russell Wilson
2022 Total Passing Yards
Russell Wilson
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Ryan Tannehill
2022 Total Passing Yards
Ryan Tannehill
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Tom Brady
2022 Total Passing Yards
Tom Brady
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Trevor Lawrence
2022 Total Passing Yards
Trevor Lawrence
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Trey Lance
2022 Total Passing Yards
Trey Lance
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
BetRivers BetRivers
Tua Tagovailoa
2022 Total Passing Yards
Tua Tagovailoa
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns
Zach Wilson
2022 Total Passing Yards
Zach Wilson
2022 Total Passing Touchdowns

NFL Betting Required Reading

Categories NFL