NBA Western Conference Win Totals

The 2022-23 NBA season expects to be another great one, as there are plenty of teams in the mix for the 2023 title. Of course, the list is led by the defending champion Golden State Warriors, and you are not going to believe how close some of the teams are in terms of their win totals this season. The Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, and Phoenix Suns all have win totals of 52.5. The other teams around the 50-win area are the Denver Nuggets (50.5) along with the Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, and Minnesota Timberwolves (each 48.5). The Los Angeles Lakers are not among the top teams in terms of win totals, as they are at just 45.5 victories. It will sure be interesting to see if the Lakers can compete and if the Warriors repeat.

2022 NBA Western Season Win Totals
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Mavericks
2022 Season Win Total
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2022 Season Win Total
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2022 Season Win Total
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2022 Season Win Total

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors (52.5), who won 53 games last season, will have a bit of a new look this season, and that was before Draymond Green decided to get into a fight with Jordan Poole. Donte DiVincenzo, who won the championship with the Milwaukee Bucks in 2021, joins the Warriors along JaMychal Green and Ty Jerome as new additions to a Warriors team that lost Gary Payton II, Otto Porter Jr., and Nemanja Bjelica. However, it is the same splash brothers with Green, Poole, and Andrew Wiggins. This team cannot be counted out in the 2022-23 season, and projections are strong for Golden State. The slight over (-114) should be the way to go here but remember that injuries can creep up on this team.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers (52.5) won just 42 games last year, which was tied for the team’s lowest in the last decade. Kawhi Leonard did not play a game while Paul George played just 31 of them. Without their stars, the Clippers struggled and missed the postseason in Tyronn Lue’s second season as the head coach. Lue, who went 128-83 (.607) with Cleveland, is 89-65 (.578) to begin his Clippers career, and for his team to hit the over, Los Angeles will need a performance similar to its one in 2020-21. Leonard played 52 games while George played 54 that year and they won 47 of their 72 games (.653). Take the over (-117).

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies (48.5) finished with the second-best record in the NBA last season (56-26), and that was still eight games worse than the league’s best Phoenix Suns (64-18). Ja Morant had a lot of impressive talent around him last season, but they did fall short in the playoffs in Taylor Jenkins’ third season with the squad. The Western Conference Semifinals loss was to the eventual champion Warriors, so we will see if the Grizzlies can make the jump this year. It will be interesting to see if their offensive rebounding and turnover creation can continue. If so, the over (-121) should be a good bet.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers (45.5) are in a similar situation this year, as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are hoping to lead the Lakers. They also once again have Russell Westbrook, who has not had a good history with new Laker Patrick Beverley. Last year, James played 56 games while Davis took part in just 40 contests, and therefore, it makes sense that the team won just 33 games. Westbrook was durable last year but he was far from efficient. Neither was Davis from 3-point land. If Davis’ shooting does not come back, the Lakers will not be able to compete for a title. However, look for a big Lakers trade at some point this season. The over is a strong play here. There is a reason why it is -129.

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What is an NBA Win Total Bet?

The season win total is part prop, part future hybrid. The plus and minus values assign odds to either side of the team’s win total line. This bet functions like a total bet. Choose either over or under the sportsbook’s line. Bet NBA win totals before your team plays its first game.

Example Los Angeles Lakers Season Wins

  • 45.5 u -129
  • 45.5 o +100

This win total line includes ½ games. That means no tie bets are possible.

Options:
Risk $129 to win $100 that the L.A. Lakers win fewer than 45.5 games. A result of 45 or fewer wins.
Risk $104 to win $100 that the L.A. Lakers more than 45.5 games. A result of 46 or more wins.

How to Handicap an NBA Win Total Bet

Handicap a team’s NBA win total using its upcoming schedule, likely starters, and any recently drafted players. Remember, you can bet under the sportsbook’s line if the win total is too high. If you believe a team is likely to win fewer games, bet under a win total line that looks too high.

Avoid betting on your favorite NBA teams or others that you otherwise root for. “Fan bias” is real. It can cloud the judgment of even the most seasoned sports handicappers. Better to research and bet on a team you don’t know much about.

The NBA season is long. Each team plays 82 games before the playoffs begin. That means it’s important to factor team and player fatigue into your NBA win total handicapping analysis. Can the team’s starters go the distance? Will they easily exceed the sportsbook’s line or will it be a struggle?

Always consider both sides of a win total line. The line is set by the sportsbook. It may move as betting action piles up on one side more than the other. The team doesn’t have to “win” the exact win total line. Instead, you’re deciding whether their actual number of wins will be more or fewer than the sportsbook’s line.

Finally, be careful when betting whole number lines like 38, 42, or 52. A tie is possible when the sportsbook doesn’t set a .5 half-win line. The good news: you get your bet back if the bet pushes. The bad news: you tie up money in the bet waiting for a result. NBA whole number win total lines are less common.

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