MLB underdogs offer you the opportunity to collect a bigger win, particularly if you’re confident they’ll defeat their opponent. Below, you’ll see big MLB moneyline underdogs for upcoming matchups. We’ll also explain how to bet on MLB underdogs at one of our recommended sports betting sites.
We’ve selected upcoming MLB matchups with +130 or greater moneyline underdogs. This number matches our betting system example below.
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Table of Contents
MLB Underdogs Today
The following are today’s MLB underdogs. Our system searches for underdogs using the sportsbook provided in the first column.
That means you might see numbers that don’t meet the search criteria from books in the second column and beyond. We provide these for line shopping purposes.
Moneyline Underdogs
The following are MLB matchups with +130 or greater moneyline underdogs.
Remember that a moneyline bet on a big underdog only wins if the underdog wins the game outright. As a result, this bet comes with more risk than a MLB run line underdog. We highly suggest reviewing our article about when to bet the run line vs the moneyline, too.
Be very careful about taking long-shot teams despite the promising payout if you happen to get lucky.
See our MLB odds page for numbers from all upcoming games.
Markets|
Game |
 BetMGMBet |
 BetRiversBet |
|---|---|---|
Astros
Rockies
6:05pm EDT | -225+180 | -200+170 |
Rays
White Sox
7:10pm EDT | -210+175 | -210+175 |
Guardians
Braves
7:20pm EDT | +145-175 | +140-165 |
Diamondbacks
Mariners
9:40pm EDT | +130-155 | +132-155 |
Moneyline Break Even Win Percentages
The following table contains break even win percentages for moneyline underdogs. The percentage indicates the likelihood of breaking even when betting underdogs at the specified moneyline value.
For example, a +100 underdog is a 50-50 wager. If you lose your bet on a +100 underdog, you have a 50% chance of breaking even on the next +100 bet.
The bottom of the table shows why taking big underdogs isn’t always a good idea. If you lose your bet on a +5000 underdog, you have a 1.96% chance of breaking even on your next +5000 next bet. You could also subtract 1.96% from 100.00% to get a 98.04% chance of losing your next +5000 wager.
Chasing your losses on big underdogs is almost always a bad idea. This is particularly true for MLB betting, which can be capricious activity for even the most seasoned of gamblers.
| ML | Decimal | BE % |
|---|---|---|
| +100 | 2.0 | 50.00% |
| +110 | 2.1 | 47.62% |
| +120 | 2.2 | 45.45% |
| +130 | 2.3 | 43.48% |
| +140 | 2.4 | 41.66% |
| +150 | 2.5 | 40.00% |
| +200 | 3 | 33.33% |
| +300 | 4 | 25.00% |
| +400 | 5 | 20.00% |
| +500 | 6 | 16.66% |
| +1000 | 11 | 09.09% |
| +2000 | 21 | 04.76% |
| +3000 | 31 | 03.23% |
| +4000 | 41 | 02.44% |
| +5000 | 50 | 01.96% |
| +10000 | 101 | 00.009% |
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MLB Underdog Betting Tips
- Shop moneylines at multiple MLB betting sites to get the best value.
- Bet on underdogs using the moneyline when you’re confident they can win outright.
- Betting big underdogs to chase your losses or break even is always a bad idea.
MLB Underdog Betting System
Below is a MLB underdog betting system we’ve adapted from our MLB odds guide. We compare and contrast betting on MLB favorites vs underdogs, showing how successful underdog bets can potentially offer better ROI.
A long-term study of baseball statistics shows that underdogs win four out of every nine MLB games (approximately 44%). Given that some underdogs face pretty long odds, you can be successful if you can identify these winning underdog teams.
Say you’re going to bet on nine favorites. If those nine teams have an average moneyline of -150, you would need $1,350 to make nine bets, laying $150 per team. Depending on the individual odds, you would have to win at least six, maybe even seven, or more bets to turn a profit.
But let’s say you get -150 odds on each bet:
6 Winning -150 Favorites
6 Winning Bets = $900 stake (6 x $150) + $600 won (6 x $100)
Total Payout = $1,500
3 Losing Bets = -$450 lost (3 x $150 stake)
Profit = $150 ($600 won – $450 lost)
ROI = $150 profit/$1,350 stake = 11%
Betting on nine underdogs, on the other hand, only puts $900 at risk. Suppose the underdogs’ moneyline is +130 each. Winning four of those nine games, averaging +130 per win, would gross $520 in winnings. The 5 losing bets would total $500. Your net profit is $20.
4 Winning +130 Underdogs
4 Winning Bets = $400 stake (4 x $100) + $520 won (4 x $130)
Total Payout = $920
5 Losing Bets = -$500 (5 x $100 stake)
Profit = $20 ($520 won – $500 lost)
ROI = $20 profit/$900 stake = 2%
5 Winning +130 Underdogs
5 Winning Bets = $500 stake (5 x $100) + $650 won (5 x $130)
Total Payout = $1150
4 Losing Bets = -$400 (4 x $100 stake)
Profit = $250 ($650 won – $400 lost)
ROI = $250 profit/$900 stake = 27%
Four underdog wins doesn’t provide as great an ROI as six favorites winning, but it at least keeps you in the black for the day, and five underdog wins is more lucrative.
Of course, this hypothetical is based on fixed favorite and underdog moneylines, so the results would be slightly different each time based on the odds for individual games.
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How to Bet on MLB Underdogs
Time needed: 3 minutes
How to Bet on MLB Underdogs
- Create a new sports betting account.
Register a new sports betting account with one of our legal MLB betting sites and deposit money. Use your Visa card or MasterCard, or deposit with a bank transfer, or other methods like Paypal.
- Review moneylines for upcoming MLB matchups.
Review moneylines for upcoming matchups, noting which teams are big underdogs. Sports betting sites typically begin posting moneylines 24 hours before first pitch.
- Note matchups with big moneyline underdogs.
Review games with +130 or greater moneylines. Betting the moneyline gives you a chance to earn a larger than average payout.
- Choose your bet and place a wager.
Choose your bet and then use the funds you deposited to place a wager. The sportsbook will pay your winnings or deduct a losing wager from your account balance after the game.
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World Series Futures
|
Team | BetMGM |
BetRivers |
|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +350 Bet | +325 Bet |
| Braves | +450 Bet | +500 Bet |
| Yankees | +750 Bet | +800 Bet |
| Orioles | +1000 Bet | +900 Bet |
| Phillies | +1300 Bet | +1500 Bet |
| Astros | +1400 Bet | +800 Bet |
| Rangers | +1400 Bet | +1300 Bet |
| Mariners | +2500 Bet | +2200 Bet |
| Blue Jays | +2500 Bet | +3000 Bet |
| Twins | +3000 Bet | +2500 Bet |
| Cubs | +3000 Bet | +3000 Bet |
| Guardians | +3000 Bet | +3500 Bet |
| Diamondbacks | +3500 Bet | +3000 Bet |
| Rays | +3500 Bet | +3500 Bet |
| Cardinals | +5000 Bet | +3500 Bet |
| Reds | +5000 Bet | +4000 Bet |
| Brewers | +5000 Bet | +4000 Bet |
| Giants | +5000 Bet | +4000 Bet |
| Tigers | +5000 Bet | +5000 Bet |
| Mets | +5000 Bet | +5500 Bet |
| Padres | +6600 Bet | +5000 Bet |
| Royals | +8000 Bet | +4500 Bet |
| Red Sox | +8000 Bet | +5000 Bet |
| Pirates | +15000 Bet | +7500 Bet |
| Angels | +15000 Bet | +10000 Bet |
| Marlins | +50000 Bet | +15000 Bet |
| Nationals | +50000 Bet | +20000 Bet |
| Athletics | +50000 Bet | +50000 Bet |
| White Sox | +100000 Bet | +50000 Bet |
| Rockies | +100000 Bet | +50000 Bet |
FAQs
A long-term study of baseball statistics shows that underdogs win four out of every nine MLB games (approximately 44%). Given that some underdogs face pretty long odds, you can be successful if you can identify these winning underdog teams.
5 winning $100 bets at +130 odds would payout at total of $1150. $500 of that would be 5 x $100 money wagered, and $650 would be 5 x $130 winnings.
The underdog moneyline break even percentage indicates the likelihood of breaking even when betting underdogs at the specified moneyline value. You’re more likely to break even betting modest underdogs versus extreme underdogs.
The break even percentage for a +150 moneyline underdog is 40.00%. If you lose your first +150 bet, you have a 40.00% chance of breaking even on your next +150 moneyline bet. Do not chase losses betting big underdogs.
The break even percentage for a +200 moneyline underdog is 33.33%. If you lose your first +200 bet, you have a 33.33% chance of breaking even on your next +200 moneyline bet. Do not chase losses betting big underdogs.
MLB Betting Resources
- How to Bet on MLB Baseball – Learn how to bet on MLB baseball with moneylines, totals, and run lines, plus exotics like parlays, props, and futures.
- MLB Betting Sites – We’ve reviewed the best licensed and legal US sports betting sites where you can bet on MLB.
- MLB Odds – Moneylines, totals, and run lines for upcoming MLB matchups. Review odds to win the World Series, plus each league’s Pennant and Divisions.
- MLB Prop Bets – Learn how to bet on MLB prop bets, and then have a look at the latest prop bets from upcoming MLB matchups.
- MLB Underdogs – Review today’s MLB underdog betting opportunities, and our simple underdog betting system.
- MLB Win Total Odds – We explain what a MLB win total bet is, how to place the bet, and offer an example wager to illustrate how this simple wager works.
- MLB Futures Odds – Our tutorial explains how to bet MLB futures with a helpful example, plus the latest odds to win the World Series, American and National Leagues, each division, and MVP awards.
- Undefeated MLB Teams – See which teams are still undefeated in the current regular season.
- World Series Betting Odds – Odds to win the World Series combined with a helpful tutorial that explains how to bet on the Fall Classic with moneylines, totals, and run lines.
- MLB League MVP Odds – See which players are favored to win this season’s American and National League MVP awards.
- Best Way to Bet on MLB Baseball – This helpful tutorial filters out all the noise and sticks to the basics. Learn simple MLB handicapping strategies.
- When to Bet the Run Line vs the Moneyline – Learn when betting the run line offers more value than the moneyline. Know which moneyline values indicate the run line might be worth a look.
- MLB Team Betting Odds – Check out odds for each MLB team’s upcoming matchups, plus team futures, season specials, and team standings.