We analyzed March Madness matches from 2009 through last season 2021. Remember, the 2020 tournament was cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Use these trends to guide your total bets on this year’s tournament. The results identify the best over/under betting prospects by conference, team and seed. You’ll thank us after you cash your winning ticket.
Chapters
- Conference Angles
- Conference Matchups
- ACC Matchups
- Seed Numbers
- Seed Number Matchups
- Trend Summary
- Live March Madness Odds – Tap Here
Dataset Details
| Games | 1st Season | Last Season | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|
| 797 | 2009 | 2021 | 230 |
We compare final scores to the game totals for every games in the dataset.
Over / Under Percentages
| PctOver | PctUnder | PctPush |
|---|---|---|
| 47.55% | 50.69% | 1.76% |
The analysis identifies several profitable subsets of betting trends. Our estimates show these subsets will continue to turn a profit.
Analysis Notes
- All results compared against closing lines.
- Closing sourced from various Vegas sportsbooks.
- The subsets below do not represent the complete set of profitable betting angles, there’s more money for the motivated miner.
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Distribution of March Madness Over/Unders
Before we analyze the individual games we’re going to explore the data.
*The distribution of game totals and final scores (winning team score + losing team score) plotted on the same axis.*
The last few seasons have a lower average score and OU. We expect that trend to continue so look out for opportunities to play the Under. Rooting for teams to score might be more fun but we’re trying to make money.
Not surprisingly you’ll find the weakest OU lines in games with teams from smaller conferences. Here’s conferences with at least 20 games in our dataset. The bar size corresponds with the average difference from the closing OU line and the final score. We take the absolute difference, so either games that went far over or under the total. The bigger known conferences have very sharp lines with little difference between the average OU and final score. Look for games where one (or both) team is from a small conference.
Summary Statistics
These tables show summary statistics for the both the final score (winning team score + losing team score) and the game total. Notice, the average score is very close to the average over/under line.
Scoring
| AvgScore | StdDevScr | MaxScr | MinScr | AvgMov |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 138.5 | 18.6 | 197 | 90 | 11.6 |
O/U
| AvgOU | StdDevOU | MaxOU | MinOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138.6 | 10.3 | 168 | 110.5 |
OU by Season
We analyzed the distributions of totals and final scores by season. The two shift around each year but there’s no predictive value of looking at season alone. Below is the average final score and total for each season. The last few years saw an increase in scoring but it’s hard to tell if the trend will hold.
| Season | AvgScr | StdScr | AvgOU | StdOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 138.3 | 19.3 | 140.2 | 9 |
| 2019 | 140.2 | 17.9 | 139.5 | 11.6 |
| 2018 | 141.2 | 20 | 144.1 | 10.3 |
| 2017 | 148 | 17.3 | 145 | 10.1 |
| 2016 | 143.7 | 18.5 | 142 | 9 |
| 2015 | 135.6 | 16.7 | 134.8 | 9.2 |
| 2014 | 136.8 | 19.1 | 135.7 | 9.4 |
| 2013 | 131.6 | 15.6 | 133.6 | 7.2 |
| 2012 | 132.9 | 16.2 | 136.4 | 10.1 |
| 2011 | 135.1 | 17.7 | 135.3 | 9.1 |
| 2010 | 137.4 | 21 | 137.2 | 10.3 |
| 2009 | 141.6 | 18.2 | 139.7 | 10.4 |
Over/Under Betting Trends
Review the following over-under betting trends to fine tune your March Madness tournament bets.
Conference Angles
Since the 2009 season, over 30 conferences sent teams to the NCAA March Madness tournament. But the top 10 conferences by appearance account for almost 75% (74.1) of the games.
| Conf | Games | TotPct |
|---|---|---|
| BIG TEN | 198 | 1.00% |
| ACC | 194 | 0.88% |
| BIG EAST | 176 | 0.75% |
| BIG TWELVE | 173 | 0.64% |
| SEC | 142 | 0.54% |
| PAC TWELVE | 92 | 0.45% |
| A TEN | 68 | 0.39% |
| WCC | 53 | 0.35% |
| MWC | 45 | 0.31% |
| AAC | 41 | 0.28% |
A few of these conferences consistently over or underperform sportsbook expectations. This deviation presents us with profitable opportunities.
Conference Matchups
Out of all the conferences we analyzed only a few present consistent betting options. They’re listed in the table below.
| Conf | Trend | Pct | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAC | Bet UNDER | 58.54% | 41 |
| CAA | Bet UNDER | 60.87% | 23 |
| HORIZON | Bet UNDER | 62.50% | 24 |
Top Trend
Bet Under when teams from the AAC, CAA, or HORIZON are playing.
ACC vs ACC
After a deep dive into conference matchup data we found an infrequent but powerful trend. When two teams from the ACC play each other in tournament games they go over the total at a high rate. At first we thought the trend was all same-conference matchups. But after further research, we found the trend applies only to ACC games. This shows the importance of digging into your data.
| Season | Winner | Loser | Score | OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Duke | Virginia Tech | 75-73 | 143 |
| 2018 | Duke | Syracuse | 69-65 | 131.5 |
| 2016 | North Carolina | Notre Dame | 88-74 | 154 |
| 2016 | Syracuse | Virginia | 68-62 | 122.5 |
| 2016 | North Carolina | Syracuse | 83-66 | 142 |
| 2015 | Louisville | NC State | 75-65 | 128.5 |
Top Trend
Bet OVER when two ACC teams play each other in the tournament.
The sample size is small but the trend is still worth following. Assuming the over and under have the same likelihood, we can expect a similar result only 1.6% of the time.
Team Seed and Over / Under Lines
Next, let’s break out each team’s tournament seed and look for situations where seeds over or under-performed the game total.
For most seeds, there’s no trends worth betting. The table below contains the seeds with trends worth betting. Out of all the seeds one outperforms the rest by a large margin. 11th seeded teams games go under the total at a high rate over a large sample size.
| Seed | Trend | Pct | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bet UNDER | 61.79% | 123 |
| 8 | Bet OVER | 58.14% | 86 |
| 6 | Bet UNDER | 56.63% | 83 |
| 7 | Bet OVER | 56.52% | 92 |
| 14 | Bet UNDER | 56.14% | 57 |
Top Trend
Bet UNDER in games where the 11th seed is playing.
Is this trend a fluke? Let’s look at the data. To our amazement, blindly betting the under in games where the 11th seeded team plays turns a profit in in the majority of seasons.
| Seed | Games | UnderPct | Unders |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 14 | 9 | 64.00% |
| 2019 | 9 | 6 | 67.00% |
| 2018 | 14 | 12 | 86.00% |
| 2017 | 13 | 4 | 31.00% |
| 2016 | 12 | 9 | 75.00% |
| 2015 | 11 | 7 | 64.00% |
| 2014 | 11 | 5 | 45.00% |
| 2013 | 7 | 3 | 43.00% |
| 2012 | 7 | 5 | 71.00% |
| 2011 | 13 | 7 | 54.00% |
| 2010 | 7 | 5 | 71.00% |
| 2009 | 5 | 4 | 80.00% |
Seed Matchups vs the Over/Under Line
Seed matchups, i.e. 1st seed vs 16th seed, is another area of research where we’ve identified several profitable betting trends.
The tables below show a profitable subset of seed matchups over the last decade. We analyze matchups of 20 games or more to reduce noise.
| Matchup | Trend | Pct | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 vs 6 | Bet UNDER | 64.58% | 48 |
| 7 vs 2 | Bet OVER | 62.50% | 24 |
| 9 vs 8 | Bet OVER | 60.42% | 48 |
| 13 vs 4 | Bet UNDER | 58.33% | 48 |
| 14 vs 3 | Bet UNDER | 58.33% | 48 |
| 9 vs 1 | Bet OVER | 57.14% | 21 |
| 12 vs 5 | Bet OVER | 56.25% | 48 |
We’ve selected a few stand-outs as our top betting trends for seed vs seed matchups.
Top Trend
Bet UNDER when the 11th seed plays the 6th seed
Top Trend
Bet OVER in any of the following matchups: 7th seed vs 2nd seed, 12th seed vs 5th seed, 9th seed vs 8th seed
O/U Trends by Teams
Our last area of trend analysis is individual team performance vs the game total.
Tournament spots aren’t guaranteed for any team. Because of this, you might think there’s not enough data to draw reasonable inferences. In reality, we see the same teams in the tournament year after year.
We analyze teams with a minimum of 10 tournament games since 2009. Our results are in the table below. Each team listed has a solid statistical betting trend.
| Team | Trend | Pct | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | Bet OVER | 66.67% | 24 |
| Xavier | Bet UNDER | 63.64% | 22 |
| Purdue | Bet OVER | 60.87% | 23 |
| Michigan | Bet UNDER | 60.61% | 33 |
| Baylor | Bet OVER | 58.33% | 24 |
| Butler | Bet UNDER | 58.33% | 24 |
| Kansas | Bet UNDER | 56.41% | 39 |
| Kentucky | Bet UNDER | 56.41% | 39 |
| Syracuse | Bet UNDER | 56.25% | 32 |
Top Over Trends
- Bet OVER in Ohio State games
- Bet OVER in Iowa games
- Bet OVER in Texas games
- Bet OVER in Iowa State games
- Bet OVER in Missouri games
Top Under Trends
- Bet UNDER in Xavier games
- Bet UNDER in FSU games
- Bet UNDER in Dayton games
- Bet UNDER in Texas Tech games
- Bet UNDER in Notre Dame games
Short But Powerful Trends
Trends with a smaller sample size but on course to become top trends. Decrease your unit size on these.
- Bet UNDER in Wofford games
- Bet UNDER in Loyola-Chicago games
- Bet UNDER in LSU games
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Trend Summary
Below is a summary of the top five betting trends we identified in our March Madness over/under betting analysis. Tap “Show More” to reveal 16 other trends.
| Type | Bet On | Trend | Pct | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Ohio St | Bet OVER | 67.00% | 24 |
| Seed Matchup | 11 vs 6 | Bet UNDER | 65.00% | 48 |
| Team | Xavier | Bet UNDER | 64.00% | 22 |
| Seed Matchup | 7 vs 2 | Bet OVER | 63.00% | 24 |
| Conference | HORIZON | Bet UNDER | 63.00% | 24 |
| Team Seed | 11 | Bet UNDER | 62.00% | 123 |
| Team | Michigan | Bet UNDER | 61.00% | 33 |
| Team | Purdue | Bet OVER | 61.00% | 23 |
| Conference | CAA | Bet UNDER | 61.00% | 23 |
| Seed Matchup | 9 vs 8 | Bet OVER | 60.00% | 48 |
| Conference | AAC | Bet UNDER | 59.00% | 41 |
| Team Seed | 8 | Bet OVER | 58.00% | 86 |
| Team | Baylor | Bet OVER | 58.00% | 24 |
| Team | Butler | Bet UNDER | 58.00% | 24 |
| Seed Matchup | 13 vs 4 | Bet UNDER | 58.00% | 48 |
| Seed Matchup | 14 vs 3 | Bet UNDER | 58.00% | 48 |
| Team Seed | 6 | Bet UNDER | 57.00% | 83 |
| Team Seed | 7 | Bet OVER | 57.00% | 92 |
| Seed Matchup | 9 vs 1 | Bet OVER | 57.00% | 21 |
| Team Seed | 14 | Bet UNDER | 56.00% | 57 |
| Team | Kansas | Bet UNDER | 56.00% | 39 |
| Team | Kentucky | Bet UNDER | 56.00% | 39 |
| Team | Syracuse | Bet UNDER | 56.00% | 32 |
| Seed Matchup | 12 vs 5 | Bet OVER | 56.00% | 48 |
College Basketball Betting Resources
- College Basketball Betting Guide – Learn how to bet on college basketball with point spreads, totals, and moneylines, plus exotic bets like parlays and prop bets.
- College Basketball Betting Sites – We’ve analyzed and reviewed the best legal sportsbooks for college basketball betting.
- College Basketball Odds – Point spread, total, and moneyline odds for upcoming College Basketball games, including March Madness and the Final Four.
- College Basketball Prop Bets – See prop betting lines and odds for upcoming College basketball games, including March Madness and the Final Four.
- College Basketball Futures Odds – Learn more about how to bet on college basketball futures. Review odds to win the National Championship and key D1 college basketball conferences, plus odds to win the John R. Wooden Award.
- Final Four Betting Odds – The latest Final Four futures odds, men’s basketball tournament schedule, matchup odds, and prop bets.
- March Madness Betting Odds – Review odds to win the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament, then learn how to bet on the tournament with the latest matchup lines and odds.
- Basketball Halftime Middling – Learn how to identify halftime middling opportunities that can help you make money betting on college basketball.
- College Basketball Conference Futures Odds – See odds to win college basketball conferences, including the SEC, Pac-12, American, ACC, WCC, Big 10, Big East, and Big 12.
- Undefeated College Basketball Teams – See which teams are still undefeated in the current regular season.
- Early Season College Basketball Betting Tips – The first couple weeks of college basketball present a unique opportunity to get an edge as oddsmakers try to get their lines right. Learn a couple quick ways to improve your NCAA basketball handicapping techniques.