We analyzed March Madness matches from 2009 through last season 2019. Use these trends to guide your total bets on this year’s tournament. The results identify the best over/under betting prospects by conference, team and seed. You’ll thank us after you cash your winning ticket.
|Games||1st Season||Last Season||Unique|
We compare final scores to the game totals for every games in the dataset.
Over / Under Percentages
The analysis identifies several profitable subsets of betting trends. Our estimates show these subsets will continue to turn a profit.
- All results compared against closing lines.
- Closing sourced from offshore books[books].
- The subsets below do not represent the complete set of profitable betting angles, there’s more money for the motivated miner.
Distribution of March Madness Over/Unders
Before we analyze the individual games we’re going to explore the data.
The distribution of game totals and final scores (winning team score + losing team score) plotted on the same axis.
These tables show summary statistics for the both the final score (winning team score + losing team score) and the game total. Notice, the average score is very close to the average over/under line.
OU by Season
We analyzed the distributions of totals and final scores by season. The two shift around each year but there’s no predictive value of looking at season alone. Below is the average final score and total for each season. The last few years saw an increase in scoring but it’s hard to tell if the trend will hold.
Over/Under Betting Trends
Since the 2009 season, over 30 conferences sent teams to the NCAA March Madness tournament. But the the top 10 conferences by appearance account for over 70% of the games.
A few of these conferences consistently over or underperform sportsbook expectations. This deviation presents us with profitable opportunities.
Out of all the conferences we analyzed only a few present consistent betting options. They’re listed in the table below.
Bet Under when teams from the AAC, CAA, or HORIZON are playing.
ACC vs ACC
After a deep dive into conference matchup data we found an infrequent but powerful trend. When two teams from the ACC play each other in tournament games they go over the total at a high rate. At first we thought the trend was all same-conference matchups. But after further research, we found the trend applies only to ACC games. This shows the importance of digging into your data.
|2016||North Carolina||Notre Dame||88-74||154|
Bet OVER when two ACC teams play each other in the tournament.
The sample size is small but the trend is still worth following. Assuming the over and under have the same likelihood, we can expect a similar result only 1.6% of the time.
Team Seed and Over / Under Lines
Next, let’s break out each team’s tournament seed and look for situations where seeds over or under-performed the game total.
For most seeds, there’s no trends worth betting. The table below contains the seeds with trends worth betting. Out of all the seeds one outperforms the rest by a large margin. 11th seeded teams games go under the total at a high rate over a large sample size.
Bet UNDER in games where the 11th seed is playing.
Is this trend a fluke? Let’s look at the data. To our amazement, blindly betting the under in games where the 11th seeded team plays turns a profit in in the majority of seasons.
Seed Matchups vs the Over/Under Line
Seed matchups, i.e. 1st seed vs 16th seed, is another area of research where we’ve identified several profitable betting trends.
The tables below show a profitable subset of seed matchups over the last decade. We analyze matchups of 20 games or more to reduce noise.
|11 vs 6||Bet UNDER||63.64%||44|
|7 vs 2||Bet OVER||60.87%||23|
|12 vs 5||Bet OVER||59.09%||44|
|9 vs 8||Bet OVER||59.09%||44|
|14 vs 3||Bet UNDER||59.09%||44|
|11 vs 3||Bet OVER||57.14%||21|
|10 vs 7||Bet OVER||56.82%||44|
|13 vs 4||Bet UNDER||56.82%||44|
We’ve selected a few stand-outs as our top betting trends for seed vs seed matchups.
Bet UNDER when the 11th seed plays the 6th seed
Bet OVER in any of the following matchups: 7th seed vs 2nd seed, 12th seed vs 5th seed, 9th seed vs 8th seed
O/U Trends by Teams
Our last area of trend analysis is individual team performance vs the game total.
Tournament spots aren’t guaranteed for any team. Because of this, you might think there’s not enough data to draw reasonable inferences. In reality, we see the same teams in the tournament year after year.
We analyze teams with a minimum of 20 tournament games since 2009. Our results are in the table below. Each team listed has a solid statistical betting trend.
|Ohio St||Bet OVER||69.57%||23|
Bet OVER in Ohio State games
Bet UNDER in Xavier games
Bet UNDER in Michigan games
Bet UNDER in Kansas games
Bet OVER in Purdue games
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Below is a summary of the top five betting trends we identified in our March Madness over/under betting analysis.
|Team||Ohio St||Bet OVER||70.00%||23|
|Seed Matchup||11 vs 6||Bet UNDER||64.00%||44|
|Team Seed||11||Bet UNDER||61.00%||109|
|Seed Matchup||7 vs 2||Bet OVER||61.00%||23|
|Seed Matchup||12 vs 5||Bet OVER||59.00%||44|
|Seed Matchup||14 vs 3||Bet UNDER||59.00%||44|
|Seed Matchup||9 vs 8||Bet OVER||59.00%||44|
|Team Seed||8||Bet OVER||58.00%||78|
|Seed Matchup||10 vs 7||Bet OVER||57.00%||44|
|Seed Matchup||11 vs 3||Bet OVER||57.00%||21|
|Seed Matchup||13 vs 4||Bet UNDER||57.00%||44|
|Team Seed||6||Bet UNDER||56.00%||75|