AFC Win Totals

Once again, the AFC will be a top-heavy conference with plenty of contenders heading into the 2022 season. The Buffalo Bills (+650) – the Super Bowl favorite – in addition to the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, and Los Angeles Chargers each have double-digit win totals. Meanwhile, two AFC North teams – the Baltimore Ravens and defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals – come in at 9.5 victories apiece. Let us take a look at the top five AFC win total teams.

2022 NFL AFC Season Win Totals
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Baltimore Ravens
2022 Season Win Total
Buffalo Bills
2022 Season Win Total
Cincinnati Bengals
2022 Season Win Total
Denver Broncos
2022 Season Win Total
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Houston Texans
2022 Season Win Total
Indianapolis Colts
2022 Season Win Total
Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 Season Win Total
Kansas City Chiefs
2022 Season Win Total
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Los Angeles Chargers
2022 Season Win Total
Miami Dolphins
2022 Season Win Total
New England Patriots
2022 Season Win Total
New York Jets
2022 Season Win Total
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Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 Season Win Total
Tennessee Titans
2022 Season Win Total
Las Vegas Raiders
2022 Season Win Total

Buffalo Bills

The Bills (11.5) could be in a Super Bowl LVII preview on the opening night of the 2022 NFL season, as they head to SoFi Stadium to take on the defending champion Los Angeles Rams. Stefon Diggs, who has a new contract, is teaming up again with Josh Allen, but they will have four road games prior to the Bills’ bye in Week 7: at Miami, Baltimore, and Kansas City. If Buffalo survives its early-season schedule, Sean McDermott’s Bills can reach the over.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs (10.5) have won double-digit games each of the last seven seasons. In all of the last four years, Kansas City won at least 12 contests and reached the AFC Championship Game. Can Patrick Mahomes bring the Chiefs back to glory after winning the Super Bowl MVP in Super Bowl LIV in 2020? A win total of 10.5 is modest, but it is because of Kansas City’s strong division. We will also have to see if JuJu Smith-Schuster can replace at least some of Tyreek Hill’s production.

Denver Broncos

It is the Russell Wilson show for the Broncos (10), who are hoping to make the playoffs for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50 with Peyton Manning. They have not won double-digit games since that year. Wilson heads right back to Seattle for the first Monday night game of the season, so that will be a very exciting start to the season.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts (10) have Matt Ryan at quarterback, as Frank Reich has his fifth different main man under center in his fifth season. Ryan replaces Carson Wentz – now with the Washington Commanders – and is hoping to get Indianapolis its first playoff win since 2019 and second since 2015. The Colts should jump out to a 2-0 start at Houston and Jacksonville, but they only get four games all season against the lower half of the AFC South. Ryan is hoping to revitalize his career at 37 years old. The four-time Pro Bowler could do so with a successful season in Indianapolis.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers (10) looked strong last year, but they won just nine games even with an impressive Justin Herbert season. If Herbert can make a big jump in his third year, then the Chargers will be in for a great season. The Las Vegas Raiders are the lone AFC West team without a double-digit win total this season. If the Chargers want a chance at the over – and a home playoff game in the first round – they may need to sweep the Raiders, as both the Broncos and, of course, the Chiefs are very difficult opponents for Los Angeles.

What is an NFL Win Total Bet?

The season win total is part prop, part future hybrid. The plus and minus values assign odds to either side of the team’s win total line. This bet functions like a total bet. Choose either over or under the sportsbook’s line.

Example Buffalo Bills Season Wins

  • 11.5 o -134
  • 11.5 u +110

This win total line includes ½ games. That means no tie bets are possible.

Options:
Risk $134 to win $100 that Buffalo wins more than 11.5 games. A result of 12 or more wins.
Risk $100 to win $110 that Buffalo wins less than 11.5 games. A result of 11 or less wins.

How to Handicap an NFL Win Total Bet

Handicap a team’s NFL win total using its upcoming schedule, likely starters, and any recently drafted players. Remember, you can bet under the sportsbook’s line if the win total is too high. If you believe a team is likely to win fewer games, bet under a win total line that looks too high.

Avoid betting on your favorite NFL teams or others that you otherwise root for. “Fan bias” is real. It can cloud the judgment of even the most seasoned sports handicappers. Better to research and bet on a team you don’t know much about.

Always consider both sides of a win total line. The line is set by the sportsbook. It may move as betting action piles up on one side more than the other. The team doesn’t have to “win” the exact win total line. Instead, you’re deciding whether their actual number of wins will be more or less than than sportsbook’s line.

Finally, be careful when betting whole number lines like 7, 8, or 9. A tie is possible when the sportsbook doesn’t set a .5 half-win line. The good news: you get your bet back if the bet pushes. The bad news: you tie up money in the bet waiting for a result.

NFL Betting Odds

Next 16 NFL Matchups
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