Take the Cowboys against the 49ers

America’s Team will be playing Sunday afternoon on CBS and Nickelodeon. The 12-5 Dallas Cowboys (-3) and their league-best offense host the 10-7 San Francisco 49ers at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys’ most recent game at home was a loss, and they are 2-3 at home since beginning the season 3-0 at AT&T Stadium.

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Let us take a quick look back at the recent history between San Francisco and Dallas. The 49ers have not defeated the Cowboys since 2014. In last year’s offensive explosion between these two teams, neither Dak Prescott nor Jimmy Garoppolo played.

Back in 2017, Kyle Shannahan and his 0-6 San Francisco squad hosted the 2-3 Cowboys. Prescott went for four total touchdowns in the 40-10 win. Unfortunately, Prescott suffered a compound fracture to his right ankle in 2020, but he has had a resurgence this season: 4,449 passing yards and 37 passing touchdowns.

How the Cowboys will Cover the Spread

Prescott is back, and so are the Cowboys, who are in the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Dallas has not lost in the wild card round since 2006. Dallas is favored by just three points, as Mike McCarthy is in his first postseason since 2016.

The Super Bowl champion coach has won at least one playoff game in six of his nine postseasons, all with the Green Bay Packers. How will he perform in his first playoff game with the Cowboys?

The Dallas head coach has a two-time Pro Bowl quarterback in Prescott, who actually lost to McCarthy in the playoffs on January 15, 2017. Although Prescott has a 1-2 career postseason record, he brings a mostly-healthy offense into this game. His roster includes Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb.

In terms of points scored, the Dallas defense is a top-10 unit this season as well. The Cowboys have playmakers on both sides of the field and could easily blow out a 49ers team that may have to rely on gadget plays to stay in Sunday’s contest.

How the 49ers will Not Cover the Spread

Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with a torn ligament in his right thumb. He will need offseason surgery, but he will continue to try to gut it out in Dallas.

If Garoppolo cannot finish Sunday’s game, the hope for Cowboys bettors is that Dallas is ready for the Trey Lance offense. If the 49ers will have a chance on Sunday, it may come down to some magical combination of Jimmy G and Lance running the show.

Both the 49ers (7-9 against the spread) and Cowboys (NFL-worst 5-11 ATS) were among the worst teams to bet on this season, but in this contest, the spread is too low to think about backing San Francisco. There is just too much uncertainty with Garoppolo under center. The best advice is to take the Cowboys.