Champions League Knockout Round Odds Guide

All UEFA Champions League knockout round odds reflect futures bets (not the round of 16 matches) and are as of 12/15/2021.

After not one but two draws, the matchups for the 2021-22 Champions League knockout round are now set.

That also means the new knockout round odds are now up for each of the final 16 club’s chances to lift the UCL trophy on May 28 in Saint Petersburg.

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Here’s our preview and futures betting outlook for the top five favorites.

Manchester City @ +275

Round of 16 matchup: at Sporting CP (+30000)

Man City was the only group winner to drop more than one game, including the group stage finale against Red Bull Leipzig. Even still, the club’s expected goals (xG) rating of 15.2 was second to only Ajax among round of 16 qualifiers, a strong signal of City’s firepower and ability to consistently create quality chances.

City is as deep as any club in the world, but being tied in an intense PL title race with Chelsea and Liverpool could be challenging if the injuries continue to pile up and some combination of Ferran Torres, Jack Grealish, John Stones, and Ilkay Gundogan don’t get healthier. However, their first matchup is as favorable as it could be, coming against a Sporting side that advanced on goal differential.

Bayern Munich @ +350

Round of 16 matchup: at Red Bull Salzburg (+40000)

FiveThirtyEight’s second-most favorite to win the UCL (with a 24% chance) steamrolled their group, going 6-0-0 and outscoring opponents 22-3. If the Bavarians seem to have a weakness, it might just be that they’ve hardly been challenged this season, including domestically in the Bundesliga.

Bayern was one of the benefactors of the round of 16 draw mishap, originally drawing feisty Atletico Madrid. Instead, they get to swap them for the team with the longest odds of winning the Champions League in what should be an easy first step toward at least the semis for Robert Lewandowski and co.

Liverpool @ +500

Round of 16 matchup: at Inter Milan (+5000)

Given that Liverpool cruised through the perceived toughest group without a defeat or a draw, it’s somewhat surprising Jurgen Klopp’s side isn’t the odds-on favorite (although that may be due to drawing a tougher first opponent than City and Bayern).

The Reds won those six group stage matches fielding a different squad almost every time out, a true testament to their depth which should come in handy as the Premier League title race heats up and Champions League play resumes. After wrapping up the group stage with a tough comeback win in Milan against AC Milan, Liverpool will have to make another weeknight trip to San Siro for a tough match against Inter.

Chelsea @ +700

Round of 16 matchup: vs. Lille (+25000)

The defending UCL champions failed to win their group on the last day of the stage thanks to a 3-3 draw against Zenit St. Petersburg. But things still worked out favorably for Chelsea, who drew a Lille side that scored just seven group stage goals and is treading mid-table water in Ligue 1 this season.

The Blues have been on absolute lockdown this campaign–those three goals they surrendered in Russia brought their goals allowed for the group stage to a grand total of…four. Two weeks earlier they also blasted eventual group winners Juventus 4-0. Assuming a healthy N’golo Kante, there’s no reason Chelsea can’t go back to St. Petersburg on May 28 and claim the title for a second-straight year.

PSG @ +800

Round of 16 matchup: vs. Real Madrid (+1800)

The redraw fiasco teased and then robbed fans of a Messi-Ronaldo rematch. However, they’ll still get to see Leo go against old rival Real Madrid, a club that averaged double the amount of shots as PSG during the group stage. Even still, PSG and Real Madrid are nearly identical in xG, making this matchup one of the biggest tossups in the round of 16.

Encouragingly, Messi and Kylian Mbappe finally seemed to click in their last group stage game, a 4-1 romp of Brugge. However, it might be worth seeing how the duo continues on Ligue 1 play before placing your money on the Parisians to win it all.