2023 MLB Fall Betting Tips and Strategies

As the 2023 MLB season heads towards the postseason, fans and sports enthusiasts are gearing up for an exciting fall of intense matchups, unexpected upsets, and thrilling moments on the diamond. Before placing your final bets of the MLB season, let’s review likely World Series contenders and some basic MLB betting strategies.


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2023 World Series Contenders

American League

Though the Baltimore Orioles currently lead the American league, they’re actually not the betting favorite to win the AL pennant. That honor belongs to the 2022 World Series Champion Houston Astros. The Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners follow the Orioles in the American League, with the Astros currently sitting at 4th +9.0 games back.

National League

Things are more clearcut in the National League. The Atlanta Braves lead the league and are also betting favorites to win the NL Pennant. Immediately behind them are the the Los Angeles Dodgers, currently +6.0 games back and a modest underdog to the Braves to win the Pennant. Bettors are less optimistic about the Philadelphia Phillies, who are now looking like less likely Pennant Contender and have a lot of work ahead of them to make up a +15.0 game deficit.

MLB Betting Basics

Before delving into strategies, it’s important to have a clear understanding of the basics of MLB betting. At its core, sports betting involves predicting the outcome of a game and placing wagers based on those predictions.

In baseball, the most common types of bets include moneyline bets, run line bets, and over/under bets. Review the following before placing your next MLB bet.

MLB Betting Guides and Tools

  • MLB Advanced Stats – Dig into unique analytical insights, helpful statistical models, and eyeball key performance data.
  • MLB Online Betting Guide – Geared towards customers from Europe, Asia, and beyond, learn more about the most reputable sports betting sites outside the USA that offer MLB betting lines and odds.
  • MLB Postseason Bracket – As the regular season comes to a close, the MLB will begin filling in its postseason bracket. Keep tabs on which teams will participate in the playoffs.

Moneylines

Moneyline bets are picking the outright winner of a game. The moneyline favorite with have a minus sign before their odds value. Moneyline underdogs will have a plus sign before their odds value.

Run Lines

The run line works just like a point spread in football or basketball. Run lines are most commonly set for 1.5 runs. Occasionally, some will be 2.5 runs. The run line favorite will have a -1.5 line and the underdog will have a +1.5. Each run line will have its own odds indicating the risk and win amounts for each side of the bet.

Over-Under Totals

Over-under bets, also known as totals, involve wagering on whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under the sportsbook’s line. With baseball, the over/under is for the combined number of runs scored by both teams, including extra innings. Each side of the bet will have its own odds values indicating risk and win amounts.

Research and Analysis

Conducting thorough research and analysis is key to handicapping MLB matchups. Successful bettors don’t rely solely on luck; they study team performance, player statistics, pitching matchups, and historical trends.

This information provides valuable insights that can inform your betting decisions. Keep an eye on injury reports, as the absence of a key player can significantly impact a team’s performance. This is particularly true for starting pitchers, key relievers, and run-producing batters.

Additionally, consider the stadium, weather, and geographical location: some teams perform exceptionally well at home while struggling on the road, and vice versa.

Home Field Advantage

The concept of home field advantage is well-established in sports, and it holds true in baseball as well. Teams tend to perform better when playing in their home stadiums due to familiar surroundings, fan support, and other intangible factors.

While home-field advantage doesn’t guarantee victory, it’s a factor worth considering when placing your bets. Oddsmakers are also well aware of this trend, and may make favorites at home more expensive than necessary. That could signal an opportunity to bet on the road underdog if they have a reasonable chance of winning and a generous moneyline payout.

Pitching Matchups Matter

In baseball, the starting pitcher has a significant impact on the outcome of a game. A strong starting pitcher can dominate the opposing team’s hitters, while a struggling pitcher can quickly find themselves in a deficit.

The final games of the regular season and initial postseason matchups are critical times for teams eyeing the World Series. Pitchers will need to be well-rested, injury free, and ready to throw their best games.

When evaluating pitching matchups, look beyond a pitcher’s win-loss record. Consider their earned run average (ERA), strikeout rate, walks allowed, and recent performance. Likewise, analyze the opposing team’s batting statistics against the types of pitches this pitcher will throw. For example, if the pitcher is a leftie who throws a lot of fastballs, see how the opponent’s batting lineup has fared against similar pitchers in the past.

Finally, review past regular season matchups between both teams. By September, most teams have played each other at least once already. See what happened in previous series and try to gauge what adjustments team managers will make for their next matchup.

Embrace Line Shopping

Just as you would compare prices when shopping for a product, it’s wise to compare betting lines across different sportsbooks. Different bookmakers may offer slightly different odds for the same game, presenting an opportunity to find more value for the same wager.

Line shopping can make a significant difference in the long run, increasing your potential profits. Review SportsBetting3.com’s MLB odds before you place your next single-game or futures bet to get the most bang for your buck.

Late-Season Bankroll Management

One of the most crucial aspects of successful sports betting is effective bankroll management. It’s akin to steering the ship of your betting journey with a steady hand. With the MLB regular season coming to a close, it’s important to lockup your winnings and not get carried away with any risky, uninformed wagers.

To safeguard your financial stability, it’s paramount to establish a budget for your betting endeavors and, most importantly, stick to it. We suggest withdrawing a portion of any winnings you’ve accumulated. This allows you to book some profit while you can continue placing bets with a net positive bankroll.

Bet with Your Head, Not Your Heart

One of the common pitfalls in sports betting is allowing emotions to dictate your decisions. While it’s natural to support your favorite team, it’s important to maintain objectivity at all times.

Betting on a team to win their Division, League Pennant, or the World Series for nostalgic reasons is never a good strategy. Taking a matchup favorite because your family or friends love a particular team is also equally unwise. Long term profits in sports betting come from a consistent, sober strategy not unlike those employed by professional investors. A wise investor doesn’t pick a stock because they “like it”, they pick it because it has good fundamentals at a reasonable asking price.

Analyze the data and statistics objectively, even if it means betting against your preferred team on occasion. A rational approach will lead to more informed and potentially profitable decisions.

Conclusion

As the 2023 MLB season comes to a close with its various twists and turns, sports betting enthusiasts have a chance to engage with baseball on a different level.

Remember that success in MLB betting requires a combination of knowledge, research, strategy, and discipline. Whether you’re a newcomer to sports betting or looking to refine your existing approach, incorporating these strategies can enhance your overall experience and potentially lead to more successful outcomes. So, as you enjoy the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd, consider how these strategies could help lead to higher profits and more fun as the march towards the World Series beginsl