Which Stats Predict that an NFL Team Will Make the Playoffs?

Imagine you could determine which NFL teams would make the playoffs? Such knowledge would produce numerous profitable betting opportunities. Super Bowl and conference futures bets would be easy winners. Luckily, SportsBetting3.com has research which stats predict whether an NFL will team the playoffs.

The following is adapted from a case study featuring the Kansas City Chiefs. For comparison purposes, we also looked at the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, and Indianapolis Colts. The Cleveland Browns, who’ve experience years of failed playoff attempts, were the control team. Dig in below and make some money this NFL season!


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Case Study: How the Kansas City Chiefs Made the Playoffs 2003-Present

We reviewed key Kansas City regular season stats for each year they made the playoffs, 2003-present. We also tabulated numbers for the 49ers and Colts.

New England made the playoffs every year except 2008 in our 2003-present sample. Meanwhile, Cleveland has the longest playoff drought in NFL history. They haven’t made the postseason since 2002. Cleveland’s stats from 2003 onward effectively demonstrate how a team does not make the playoffs. The Raiders have a similar track record, save one playoff appearance in 2016.

Each team’s overall averages are displayed below. Separate tables containing each team’s regular season stats follow. Numbers for the Cleveland Browns are provided as a control group.

Stats that Predict Playoff Appearances

Kansas City makes the playoffs if their regular season is above their playoff year averages. In our estimation, the most predictive stats are possession time greater than 30 minutes, a 97 QB rating or better, 5700 offensive yards or better, and at least 50 touchdowns.

Note also an average of 327 1st downs in the regular season. Most of the totals cluster closely around 300. The Kansas City Chiefs must consistently advance the ball to win games!

For the record, the New England Patriots’ averages exceed these numbers. That suggests a range of high end performance – well above the lowly Cleveland Browns and Raiders – guarantees a crack at the Super Bowl.

Key Overall Stats Averages

Select Regular Season Averages, Playoff Teams vs. Drought Teams 2003-Present


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Query Error: SELECT COUNT(*) FROM y2023_sch_pos WHERE (awayteam = 'Indianapolis Colts' OR hometeam = 'Indianapolis Colts')
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Average Stats - Regular Season - Each Team
YearPoss.
Time
QB
Rating
Off.
Yds
TDs 1st
Downs
Chiefs Playoffs (11)
Averages
104.4588850342
Colts Playoffs (13)
Averages
102.3594150356
49ers Playoffs (5)
Averages
126.7567544317
Raiders Drought (2)
Averages
92.4520433289

Key Stats for Consistent Playoff Contenders


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Chiefs 2003-Present Playoff Appearances - Key Season Stats

Chiefs - Regular Season Stats - Playoff Years
YearPoss.
Time
QB
Rating
Off.
Yds
TDs 1st
Downs
Average104.4588850342
2021118.8674655419
2020118.8665357397
2019105.3606748350
2018113.8681070384
2017104.7600739322
2016118.8548841305
201595.4529943303
201389.1505050303
201093.0559544319
200698.0514337310
200392.6591063348


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Colts 2003-Present Playoff Appearances - Key Season Stats

Colts - Regular Season Stats - Playoff Years
YearPoss.
Time
QB
Rating
Off.
Yds
TDs 1st
Downs
Average102.3594150356
202097.0604950364
201898.7617952371
2014102.6650652371
201387.0546840318
201276.5579940360
201091.9609250366
2009158.3580953339
200895.0536842321
200798.0573953357
2006101.0607049376
2005104.1579951363
2004121.1647565379
200399.0587447348


Query Error: SELECT COUNT(*) FROM y2023_sch_pos WHERE (awayteam = 'San Francisco 49ers' OR hometeam = 'San Francisco 49ers')
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49ers 2003-Present Playoff Appearances - Key Season Stats

49ers - Regular Season Stats - Playoff Years
YearPoss.
Time
QB
Rating
Off.
Yds
TDs 1st
Downs
Average126.7567544317
2021133.3633750361
2019118.8609754336
2013118.8518041286
2012104.1578942322
2011158.3497435282


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Raiders 2003-Present Playoff Drought - Key Season Stats (Except: 2016)

Raiders - Regular Season Stats - Drought Years
YearPoss.
Time
QB
Rating
Off.
Yds
TDs 1st
Downs
Average92.3521533290
2022118.8599341343
202194.0618437349
2020118.8613348359
2019581937315
201893.9537930300
201786.4518536287
201591.1533642300
201476.6451527248
2013158.3534035275
201285.2550428300
2011118.1607237328
201084.5567443306
200980.6425817234
200877.1435627225
200778.0471730267
200661.6393914243
200577.3495132294
200486.9515335275
200373.4457329258

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Team
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