US Presidential Election Odds

Review and Analysis: Kyle Johansen

The upcoming United States presidential election taking place on Tuesday, November 3, has seen wildly fluctuating odds. The initial numbers released in April showed Donald Trump as a slight favorite of -110 with Joe Biden at +125. But as the world has changed in the months since, odds have changed dramatically in favor of Biden. As of October 12, Joe Biden is a -200 favorite with Trump at +170. However, as Americans well know, the election and its ultimate results are far from a sure thing.

US Presidential Election Odds

2024 US Presidential Election Winner Futures Odds - All Available Candidates
Last Updated June 20, 2021 1:34 pm
OutcomeSB3Gen SB3Gen
1. Kamala HarrisKamala Harris
2. Joe BidenJoe Biden
3. Donald TrumpDonald Trump
4. Ron DeSantisRon DeSantis
5. Nikki HaleyNikki Haley
6. Mike PenceMike Pence
7. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8. Dwayne Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson
9. Michelle ObamaMichelle Obama
10. Ted CruzTed Cruz
11. Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg
12. John KasichJohn Kasich
13. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Warren
14. Cory BookerCory Booker
15. Josh HawleyJosh Hawley
16. Stacey AbramsStacey Abrams
17. Donald Trump Jr.Donald Trump Jr.
18. Mike PompeoMike Pompeo
19. Dan CrenshawDan Crenshaw
20. Mark CubanMark Cuban
21. Andrew CuomoAndrew Cuomo
22. Kristi NoemKristi Noem
23. Tom CottonTom Cotton
24. Amy KlobucharAmy Klobuchar
25. Kanye WestKanye West
26. Tammy DuckworthTammy Duckworth
27. Gretchen WhitmerGretchen Whitmer
28. Candace OwensCandace Owens
29. Beto O'RourkeBeto O'Rourke
30. Andrew YangAndrew Yang
31. Val DemmingsVal Demmings
32. Paul RyanPaul Ryan
33. Tulsi GabbardTulsi Gabbard
34. Charlie BakerCharlie Baker
35. Hillary ClintonHillary Clinton
36. Tim ScottTim Scott
37. Bernie SandersBernie Sanders
38. Greg AbbottGreg Abbott
39. Rand PaulRand Paul
40. George P. BushGeorge P. Bush
41. Mitt RomneyMitt Romney
42. David PortnoyDavid Portnoy
43. Michael BloombergMichael Bloomberg
44. Condoleezza RiceCondoleezza Rice
45. Jamie DimonJamie Dimon
46. Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom
47. Kayleigh McEnanyKayleigh McEnany
48. Jared KushnerJared Kushner
49. Tommy TubervilleTommy Tuberville
50. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Graham
51. Joe Kennedy IIIJoe Kennedy III

Cached 2021-06-20 14:01:37

2016 Presidential Odds

In 2016, after opening as a -110 favorite, Hillary Clinton was up to -215 by the end of September. As October came to a close, she was up to a -550 favorite with Trump at +350. By the day of the election, money on Trump had moved the odds to Clinton -275, Trump +190.

Oddsmakers determine their numbers using a variety of factors. The starting point is typically a roundup of nationally released polls. Regional polling provides data for models which begin projecting how those votes will be reflected in the electoral college. According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump had a 29% chance to win in 2016. When converted to odds, a 71% chance for Clinton would have true odds of -244.

By the time the election came, both candidates were bad values from a betting perspective. Clinton was overvalued at -275, while Trump was also overvalued at +190. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s true odds should have been +244.

2020 Presidential Odds and Factors

While FiveThirtyEight was way off in their projection of the 2016 election, they were more accurate than most. The New York Times tracked models showing Trump’s odds ranging from 15% to less than 1% on election night. So, while these models are highly sophisticated, they can also be highly flawed.

Currently, FiveThirtyEight shows Joe Biden winning in 86 out of 100 simulations. After the first presidential debate, NBC released a new poll that showed Biden at 53% and Trump at 39%. A 14-point gap appears to be insurmountable for Trump this late into the election season. And with this election being vastly different than ever before, many believe that Trump does not have enough time to close the gap. However, it is worth noting that Hillary Clinton had a similar lead in 2016.

On the day of the debate, Biden was listed as a -120 favorite with Trump at even money. The following day, Biden was up to -140 and Trump was listed at +120. Those numbers only continued to move up in the days since. As of the first week of October, Biden was a -175 favorite and Trump at +145 underdog.

How Does Trump’s Bout with COVID Affect the Election?

As far as the odds go, Biden is currently listed at -200 despite Trump’s recent declaration that he had beaten COVID. However, the most recent polls show that Trump has inched up from the 14-point gap reflected in the NBC poll. Of five polls that were completed on October 11, Trump, on average, had narrowed the gap to 11 points.

Pollsters are split on Trump’s recent bout with COVID. Some view his lack of precautions in contracting the virus as a negative, while others see his recovery as a sign of strength given his old age.

How Will Health Affect the Election?

At 77 years old, Joe Biden would be the oldest first-time President of the United States. However, if elected, Donald Trump at 74 would also be the oldest sitting U.S. President. Age is one of the factors Biden has going against him, and Trump’s bounce-back from COVID-19 may further strengthen his position as the healthier of the two candidates.

How Will the Debates Affect the Election?

The first debate was seen as a disaster by most onlookers and neither candidate made a particularly good impression. Trump needed the debate more than Biden did given his lagging performance in the polls.

The second presidential debate was set to take place on October 15. Trump’s bout with COVID-19 necessitated a shift to a virtual debate. Despite Trump’s recovery and desire to debate in person, it has since been canceled. Currently, a third debate is scheduled for October 22.

As for the debate between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris, according to a CNN poll, 59% believed Harris had the better night. The gap was largely a result of female poll takers, with Harris winning 69% to Pence’s 30% in this demographic. Men were more split, with 48% favoring Harris to 46% favoring Pence.

What Factors Can Change the Election?

The most significant factor that can change the election is positive news surrounding COVID-19 and a potential vaccine. President Trump has said that a vaccine will be here sooner than later. He also touted the drug that he was administered during his stay at Walter Reed hospital.

A potential second stimulus package will be another factor that could help Trump pull ahead. Republicans and Democrats are currently still debating what that stimulus package should look like. But if and when the stimulus is announced, it will likely be good news for Trump.

A trickle-down effect from both positive COVID news and a potential stimulus package will have a positive impact on the stock market. Trump has emphasized both his economic policies and recovering equity markets during the campaign. Any increase in the market could increase his chances of victory. Presidential Election Picks

Bob Seltzer – Donald Trump

Bob’s Take – Few will admit to pollsters they’re voting for Trump. He’s still within reach of victory. Like 2016, the shy Trump voter will show up on election day. Trump is the better value.

Ron Halfback – Joe Biden

Ron’s Take – Pollsters and bookies have both learned from their dramatic 2016 miss. The numbers, momentum and current events favor Biden. He had a remarkably low bar to clear in the first debate and came off more coherent, though certainly with a few missteps. Smart money takes the favorite.

US Presidential Election – Winning Party

2020 US Presidential Election Winning Party Futures Odds - All Available Candidates
Last Updated October 26, 2020 1:33 pm
OutcomeSB3Gen SB3Gen
1. Democratic PartyDemocratic Party
2. Republican PartyRepublican Party

Cached 2021-06-20 22:36:38

Next US Presidential Election – Democratic Candidate

2024 US Presidential Election Democratic Candidate Futures Odds - All Available Candidates
Last Updated June 20, 2021 1:34 pm
OutcomeSB3Gen SB3Gen
1. Joe BidenJoe Biden
2. Kamala HarrisKamala Harris
3. Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg
4. Michelle ObamaMichelle Obama
5. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Warren
6. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez
7. Amy KlobucharAmy Klobuchar
8. Sherrod BrownSherrod Brown
9. Michael BloombergMichael Bloomberg
10. Hillary ClintonHillary Clinton
11. Cory BookerCory Booker
12. Bernie SandersBernie Sanders
13. Stacey AbramsStacey Abrams
14. Gretchen WhitmerGretchen Whitmer
15. Beto O'RourkeBeto O'Rourke
16. Andrew YangAndrew Yang
17. Andrew CuomoAndrew Cuomo
18. Tulsi GabbardTulsi Gabbard
19. Tammy DuckworthTammy Duckworth
20. Deval PatrickDeval Patrick
21. Michael BennetMichael Bennet
22. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten Gillibrand
23. Tammy BaldwinTammy Baldwin
24. Val DemmingsVal Demmings

Cached 2021-06-20 14:01:37

Next US Presidential Election – Republican Candidate

2024 US Presidential Election Republican Candidate Futures Odds - All Available Candidates
Last Updated June 20, 2021 1:34 pm
OutcomeSB3Gen SB3Gen
1. Donald TrumpDonald Trump
2. Ron DeSantisRon DeSantis
3. Nikki HaleyNikki Haley
4. Mike PompeoMike Pompeo
5. Mike PenceMike Pence
6. Kristi NoemKristi Noem
7. Ted CruzTed Cruz
8. Josh HawleyJosh Hawley
9. Donald Trump Jr.Donald Trump Jr.
10. Tom CottonTom Cotton
11. Tim ScottTim Scott
12. Candace OwensCandace Owens
13. Rand PaulRand Paul
14. Dan CrenshawDan Crenshaw
15. Greg AbbottGreg Abbott
16. Paul RyanPaul Ryan
17. Mitt RomneyMitt Romney
18. Condoleezza RiceCondoleezza Rice
19. Kayleigh McEnanyKayleigh McEnany
20. Charlie BakerCharlie Baker
21. Tommy TubervilleTommy Tuberville
22. Kanye WestKanye West
23. John KasichJohn Kasich
24. George P. BushGeorge P. Bush
25. Jared KushnerJared Kushner
26. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Graham
27. Jeff FlakeJeff Flake

Cached 2021-06-20 14:01:37